Blog posts

Mearsheimer's realism principles: compatible with economics?

Mearsheimer’s Realism Principles

I already posted about John Mearsheimer’s realism in a previous post. This time I want to discuss Professor Mearsheimer’s realism theory more explicitly. In this video, he explicitly lays out the 5 assumptions of his theory, which I think makes the discussion more systematic (see around minute 12 of the video).

Balance of payments problems are not (just) about trade

As someone who spent a long time working in trade and industrialization, I grew up with the view that comparative advantage is everything. If our exports of a particular good, say computers, are small or even net imports, it means we are not good at making that product. In other words, Indonesia’s comparative advantage is not in computers. As a result, we tend to treat exports as the key indicator of our industrial prowess.

Indonesian trade and industry data 2018-2023 from SEKI Bank Indonesia

The recent Indonesia’s 200% tariff aimed at Chinese products proposed by the Indonesian Minister of Trade, Zulkifli Hasan (Zulhas), startled businesses. Some love it, some others despise it. One thing for sure though, it created (still is, matter of fact) another confusion after series of blunder by the Ministry of Trade. This 200% tariff is no different, where Luhut just toned down the 200% tariff hype. We also have no idea in what form this tariff will be (MFN? Anti dumping? Safeguard? or even some form of NTM?) What exactly the government want? No idea.

Labor-machine substitution in agriculture

Today, February 25, 2024, there’s a lively online discussion about Indonesia’s increasingly high food prices. Some people are comparing rice prices abroad vs. in Indonesia, asking why other countries can keep prices low. The answer, of course, is that abroad (at least in Western countries) rice can be imported freely without government intervention. The follow-up question: if we’re an agrarian country, how can domestic production be more expensive than imports? There are many answers to this, and they’ve been addressed elsewhere – for instance in this CIPS publication or Arianto Patunru’s blog. Excellent reads, both of them.

Latest World Bank report on international trade and green transition in Indonesia

On January 18, 2024, I had the opportunity to attend a joint event by the Ministry of Trade and The World Bank. The theme was “Trading Towards Sustainability: The Role of Trade Policies in Indonesia’s Green Transformation.” Quite a mouthful, but from the title you can tell the focus was on how trade policy can facilitate Indonesia’s green transition.

Goodbye dollar? Not quite yet

The topic of de-dollarization has been a hot-button issue lately. De-dollarization – the effort by many countries to reduce dependence on the US dollar (USD) – is reportedly being championed especially by BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa).

Demographic bonus: blessing or curse?

On Thursday, July 6, 2023, the Fiscal Policy Agency (BKF) at the Ministry of Finance held an event called fiscal day. One of the themes raised was a policy discussion on Indonesia’s demographic bonus. This discussion is highly relevant, especially now as Indonesia pursues investment and economic growth, trying to prevent “growing old before growing rich.”

Government spending and inequality

Inequality is one of the most important issues of our time. You’ve surely seen people discussing inequality on social media. Recently, a Twitter account crossed my timeline arguing: how can there be Coldplay tickets priced at 11 million rupiah while so many people are poor? And they sold out, too!

Recent FDI developments: Indonesia and the region

Indonesia was surprised on a holiday by the issuance of the Job Creation Government Regulation in Lieu of Law (Perppu) as a replacement for the law currently being debated by the Constitutional Court (MK). This appears to have been driven by the government’s concerns about foreign investment. The argument is that the Job Creation Law being contested at the Constitutional Court creates uncertainty for investors. This is compounded by the approaching election year, which makes the future of the law – currently in the government’s court – even more uncertain.