Metodologi penelitian

Pertemuan 1

Prodi PIWAR Politeknik APP Jakarta

Hari ini ☀️

  • Administrasi
  • Refresh OLS

Tentang Metodoologi penelitian

  • Part 1 Melanjutkan math&stats.
    • time series regression.
  • Part 2 fokus ke metode penulisan laporan penelitian.
    • Pola berpikir,struktur laporan & cara mengisinya.
    • mencari data perdagangan dan visualisasinya.
    • Membuat dokumennya.
  • Sebagian besar materi merupakan pengenalan minimal.
  • Pendalaman bisa dilakukan di luar kelas.

Kenapa metodologi penelitian

  • Meneliti pada hakikatnya adalah skill dasar:
    • memahami bagaimana formulasikan pertanyaan.
    • mencari cara menjawabnya.
  • menggunakan tools data analytics & visualization menjadi semakin mainstream.
    • skill bermain dengan data menjadi nilai penting.
  • Diharapkan mahasiswa minimal ter-ekspose dengan data analytics & visualization yang bisa dikembangkan sendiri ke depan.

Informasi Pengajar

nama ruangan matkul lain
Bayu Prabowo Sutjiatmo Ruang Kaprodi PIWAR -
Theresia Anindita Ruang Pudir II -
I Made Krisna A2004 (Ruang Kerja Sama) LLP

Ekspektasi dari mahasiswa

  • Sudah mahir probabilitas dan regresi sederhana.
    • harusnya aman kalau lulus stats&math.
  • Tidak perlu bisa bahasa inggris, but a good command of english will certainly be helpful
  • Lumayan membantu jika bisa spreadsheet.
  • Punya akses terhadap internet dan alat komputasi seperti laptop.

Beberapa aturan

  • kuliah efektif antara 90 - 100 menit.
  • Kehadiran tidak diwajibkan.
    • Yang hadir wajib untuk tertib dan tidak boleh berisik.
  • Mahasiswa dipersilakan meninggalkan kelas untuk alasan apapun.
    • Tidak perlu ijin dulu.
  • Silakan tanya kapan saja jika bingung.

Tools

Struktur kuliah

minggu konten
1 intro & regresi multivariat
2 Prinsip dasar OLS
3 Karakteristik umum data
4 Data serial waktu
5 Regresi time series
6 Teknik lanjutan time series
7 Lanjut time series + intro to R and RStudio
8 UTS

Struktur kuliah

minggu konten
9 mencari dan melakukan visualisasi data
10 Visualisasi di R dengan ggplot
11 Regresi di R
12 Menulis dokumen di RStudio
13 Menggunakan Zotero
14 Proses membuat laporan yang baik
15 Pedoman TA Politeknik APP Jakarta

Nilai ✍🏾

evaluation covers %
Tugas kelompok semua 30
UTS 7 minggu pertama 30
Tugas individu semua 40
  • Slides saja mestinya cukup untuk dapat 100 di UTS.
  • Tugas kelompok akan berupa replikasi sebuah laporan penelitian.
    • detil setelah UTS
  • Tugas individu berupa membuat laporan dalam 3 format: pdf, html dan docx.
    • contohnya begini.
    • webpage ini dapat jadi portofolio anda.

Questions?

via GIPHY

Question!

Ada yang bisa menjelaskan apa materi regresi di Math&Stats?

Apakah seperti ini?

\[ Y_i=\beta_0+\beta_1 X_i+\mu_i \]

Regresi

  • Disebut juga dengan Ordinary Least Square (OLS).
  • Digunakan untuk mencari parameter yang menghubungkan dua variabel.
  • Metode OLS sangat sering digunakan untuk penelitian karena dia simpel namun powerful.
  • Namun, bisa regresi saja tidak cukup!
    • kita tau cara menyampaikan hasilnya dengan tepat.

Regresi univariat

\[ Y_i=\beta_0+\beta_1 X_i+\mu_i \]

  • Y disebut juga variabel dependen
  • X disebut juga variabel independen
  • nilai Y dan X kita dapatkan dari data
  • \(\beta_0\) dan \(\beta_1\) disebut parameter. Nilainya kita dapat dari hasil estimasi komputer.
  • \(\mu\) disebut juga error term / residual. Dia bersifat independen

Regresi dengan R

  • Melakukan itu semua dengan R dan RStudio, termasuk visualisasi data dan membuat laporan penelitiannya.
  • Kelas ini akan fokus menggunakan data-data perdagangan dari berbagai sumber.
  • Kenapa R dan RStudio?
    • Gratis.
    • Mature, intuitive dan mudah kalau mau pindah bahasa.
    • Digunakan banyak profesional juga.
    • Gratis!!!!

Contoh regresi dengan R

Menarik data World Development Indicators punya World Bank:

#| echo: true
library(WDI)
library(tidyverse)

indi<-c(            # membuat dictionary
  "PDB"="NY.GDP.MKTP.CD",
  "import"="NE.IMP.GNFS.CD"
)

dat<-WDI(           # Menarik data World Bank
  country="all",
  indicator=indi,
  start=2019,end=2019,
)

dat$LPDB<-log(dat$PDB) # menambahkan transformasi log
dat$Limport<-log(dat$import)
country iso2c iso3c year PDB import LPDB Limport
Afghanistan AF AFG 2019 1.890450e+10 NA 23.66267 NA
Africa Eastern and Southern ZH AFE 2019 1.000834e+12 2.702334e+11 27.63185 26.32255
Africa Western and Central ZI AFW 2019 8.225384e+11 2.119928e+11 27.43566 26.07982
Albania AL ALB 2019 1.540183e+10 6.926960e+09 23.45775 22.65869
Algeria DZ DZA 2019 1.717603e+11 4.997396e+10 25.86937 24.63477
American Samoa AS ASM 2019 6.470000e+08 6.140000e+08 20.28786 20.23551
Andorra AD AND 2019 3.155149e+09 NA 21.87230 NA
Angola AO AGO 2019 6.930911e+10 1.180943e+10 24.96184 23.19216
Antigua and Barbuda AG ATG 2019 1.675404e+09 1.156390e+09 21.23932 20.86857
Arab World 1A ARB 2019 2.868891e+12 1.093191e+12 28.68495 27.72012
Argentina AR ARG 2019 4.477547e+11 6.584563e+10 26.82751 24.91058
Armenia AM ARM 2019 1.361929e+10 7.458380e+09 23.33475 22.73260
Aruba AW ABW 2019 3.395794e+09 2.448678e+09 21.94580 21.61881
Australia AU AUS 2019 1.392219e+12 3.017660e+11 27.96192 26.43292
Austria AT AUT 2019 4.446212e+11 2.317756e+11 26.82049 26.16904
Azerbaijan AZ AZE 2019 4.817424e+10 1.771247e+10 24.59809 23.59753
Bahamas, The BS BHS 2019 1.305870e+10 4.813800e+09 23.29272 22.29475
Bahrain BH BHR 2019 3.865332e+10 2.520771e+10 24.37790 23.95042
Bangladesh BD BGD 2019 3.512384e+11 6.492043e+10 26.58473 24.89643
Barbados BB BRB 2019 5.324250e+09 2.021650e+09 22.39554 21.42718
Belarus BY BLR 2019 6.441011e+10 4.235333e+10 24.88854 24.46931
Belgium BE BEL 2019 5.358657e+11 4.381723e+11 27.00715 26.80588
Belize BZ BLZ 2019 2.416500e+09 1.200500e+09 21.60559 20.90600
Benin BJ BEN 2019 1.439169e+10 4.900485e+09 23.38992 22.31260
Bermuda BM BMU 2019 7.423465e+09 1.916492e+09 22.72791 21.37376
Bhutan BT BTN 2019 2.535656e+09 1.221921e+09 21.65372 20.92369
Bolivia BO BOL 2019 4.089532e+10 1.285342e+10 24.43428 23.27688
Bosnia and Herzegovina BA BIH 2019 2.048260e+10 1.115811e+10 23.74284 23.13543
Botswana BW BWA 2019 1.672591e+10 7.694782e+09 23.54022 22.76381
Brazil BR BRA 2019 1.873288e+12 2.766348e+11 28.25872 26.34596
British Virgin Islands VG VGB 2019 NA NA NA NA
Brunei Darussalam BN BRN 2019 1.346924e+10 6.810535e+09 23.32367 22.64174
Bulgaria BG BGR 2019 6.891193e+10 4.183346e+10 24.95610 24.45696
Burkina Faso BF BFA 2019 1.617816e+10 5.023005e+09 23.50693 22.33729
Burundi BI BDI 2019 2.576519e+09 6.146072e+08 21.66971 20.23649
Cabo Verde CV CPV 2019 2.266752e+09 1.280717e+09 21.54161 20.97069
Cambodia KH KHM 2019 2.708939e+10 1.692145e+10 24.02241 23.55185
Cameroon CM CMR 2019 3.967098e+10 9.333955e+09 24.40389 22.95692
Canada CA CAN 2019 1.743725e+12 5.897067e+11 28.18704 27.10289
Caribbean small states S3 CSS 2019 7.728280e+10 NA 25.07074 NA
Cayman Islands KY CYM 2019 5.941897e+09 2.695691e+09 22.50529 21.71492
Central African Republic CF CAF 2019 2.221301e+09 7.621378e+08 21.52136 20.45164
Central Europe and the Baltics B8 CEB 2019 1.674114e+12 1.000260e+12 28.14631 27.63128
Chad TD TCD 2019 1.131495e+10 4.280250e+09 23.14939 22.17728
Channel Islands JG CHI 2019 1.038167e+10 NA 23.06331 NA
Chile CL CHL 2019 2.784933e+11 8.272251e+10 26.35266 25.13876
China CN CHN 2019 1.427997e+13 2.496153e+12 30.28988 28.54577
Colombia CO COL 2019 3.230317e+11 7.006718e+10 26.50102 24.97272
Comoros KM COM 2019 1.195020e+09 3.524664e+08 20.90143 19.68047
Congo, Dem. Rep. CD COD 2019 5.177583e+10 1.520526e+10 24.67019 23.44491
Congo, Rep. CG COG 2019 1.275034e+10 6.778504e+09 23.26882 22.63702
Costa Rica CR CRI 2019 6.441767e+10 2.024983e+10 24.88865 23.73141
Cote d'Ivoire CI CIV 2019 5.989848e+10 1.288059e+10 24.81592 23.27899
Croatia HR HRV 2019 6.132927e+10 3.128159e+10 24.83952 24.16630
Cuba CU CUB 2019 1.034280e+11 1.097100e+10 25.36214 23.11852
Curacao CW CUW 2019 2.995185e+09 NA 21.82027 NA
Cyprus CY CYP 2019 2.594519e+10 1.957878e+10 23.97925 23.69771
Czechia CZ CZE 2019 2.525482e+11 1.714581e+11 26.25487 25.86760
Denmark DK DNK 2019 3.464987e+11 1.787159e+11 26.57115 25.90906
Djibouti DJ DJI 2019 3.088854e+09 4.763669e+09 21.85107 22.28428
Dominica DM DMA 2019 6.115370e+08 NA 20.23149 NA
Dominican Republic DO DOM 2019 8.894137e+10 2.485188e+10 25.21124 23.93620
Early-demographic dividend V2 EAR 2019 1.169625e+13 3.082020e+12 30.09029 28.75661
East Asia & Pacific (excluding high income) 4E EAP 2019 1.720713e+13 3.685108e+12 30.47635 28.93532
East Asia & Pacific (IDA & IBRD countries) T4 TEA 2019 1.718566e+13 3.678100e+12 30.47510 28.93342
East Asia & Pacific Z4 EAS 2019 2.702400e+13 7.105120e+12 30.92775 29.59184
Ecuador EC ECU 2019 1.081080e+11 2.489560e+10 25.40640 23.93796
Egypt, Arab Rep. EG EGY 2019 3.186788e+11 7.801253e+10 26.48745 25.08014
El Salvador SV SLV 2019 2.688114e+10 1.238847e+10 24.01469 23.24003
Equatorial Guinea GQ GNQ 2019 1.136413e+10 4.971586e+09 23.15373 22.32700
Eritrea ER ERI 2019 NA NA NA NA
Estonia EE EST 2019 3.108190e+10 2.171688e+10 24.15989 23.80136
Eswatini SZ SWZ 2019 4.466215e+09 1.931360e+09 22.21981 21.38149
Ethiopia ET ETH 2019 9.591261e+10 2.002207e+10 25.28670 23.72010
Euro area XC EMU 2019 1.341836e+13 6.005803e+12 30.22765 29.42375
Europe & Central Asia (excluding high income) 7E ECA 2019 3.248044e+12 9.476257e+11 28.80907 27.57723
Europe & Central Asia (IDA & IBRD countries) T7 TEC 2019 4.156450e+12 1.385125e+12 29.05568 27.95681
Europe & Central Asia Z7 ECS 2019 2.291027e+13 9.595156e+12 30.76261 29.89228
European Union EU EUU 2019 1.569262e+13 7.198152e+12 30.38421 29.60485
Faroe Islands FO FRO 2019 3.275684e+09 1.726425e+09 21.90979 21.26932
Fiji FJ FJI 2019 5.481693e+09 3.209508e+09 22.42468 21.88938
Finland FI FIN 2019 2.685149e+11 1.066669e+11 26.31617 25.39298
Fragile and conflict affected situations F1 FCS 2019 1.825820e+12 5.196129e+11 28.23305 26.97635
France FR FRA 2019 2.728870e+12 8.882314e+11 28.63491 27.51250
French Polynesia PF PYF 2019 6.022276e+09 2.116542e+09 22.51873 21.47305
Gabon GA GAB 2019 1.687441e+10 3.711866e+09 23.54906 22.03480
Gambia, The GM GMB 2019 1.813610e+09 6.243942e+08 21.31858 20.25229
Georgia GE GEO 2019 1.747044e+10 1.114280e+10 23.58378 23.13406
Germany DE DEU 2019 3.888226e+12 1.594826e+12 28.98897 28.09779
Ghana GH GHA 2019 6.833797e+10 2.690822e+10 24.94773 24.01570
Gibraltar GI GIB 2019 NA NA NA NA
Greece GR GRC 2019 2.052570e+11 8.574467e+10 26.04753 25.17464
Greenland GL GRL 2019 2.997331e+09 1.533076e+09 21.82099 21.15054
Grenada GD GRD 2019 1.213485e+09 NA 20.91676 NA
Guam GU GUM 2019 6.366000e+09 3.552000e+09 22.57424 21.99078
Guatemala GT GTM 2019 7.717231e+10 2.153475e+10 25.06931 23.79293
Guinea-Bissau GW GNB 2019 1.439638e+09 5.050919e+08 21.08766 20.04025
Guinea GN GIN 2019 1.344286e+10 5.830608e+09 23.32171 22.48639
Guyana GY GUY 2019 5.173760e+09 NA 22.36687 NA
Haiti HT HTI 2019 1.501609e+10 5.107129e+09 23.43239 22.35390
Heavily indebted poor countries (HIPC) XE HPC 2019 7.991607e+11 2.578992e+11 27.40683 26.27583
High income XD 2019 5.531547e+13 1.682581e+13 31.64407 30.45394
Honduras HN HND 2019 2.508994e+10 1.457953e+10 23.94573 23.40288
Hong Kong SAR, China HK HKG 2019 3.630746e+11 6.393460e+11 26.61787 27.18371
Hungary HU HUN 2019 1.640205e+11 1.299396e+11 25.82326 25.59034
IBRD only XF IBD 2019 3.118189e+13 7.433660e+12 31.07086 29.63704
Iceland IS ISL 2019 2.466364e+10 9.662622e+09 23.92860 22.99153
IDA & IBRD total ZT IBT 2019 3.363943e+13 8.099957e+12 31.14672 29.72288
IDA blend XH IDB 2019 1.069700e+12 2.375095e+11 27.69840 26.19347
IDA only XI IDX 2019 1.387561e+12 4.287609e+11 27.95857 26.78417
IDA total XG IDA 2019 2.457261e+12 6.673419e+11 28.53007 27.22657
India IN IND 2019 2.835606e+12 6.023151e+11 28.67328 27.12405
Indonesia ID IDN 2019 1.119100e+12 2.130346e+11 27.74355 26.08472
Iran, Islamic Rep. IR IRN 2019 2.836495e+11 7.735255e+10 26.37101 25.07164
Iraq IQ IRQ 2019 2.336361e+11 7.228250e+10 26.17703 25.00385
Ireland IE IRL 2019 3.993217e+11 4.966358e+11 26.71303 26.93112
Isle of Man IM IMN 2019 7.314967e+09 NA 22.71319 NA
Israel IL ISR 2019 4.024705e+11 1.088600e+11 26.72089 25.41333
Italy IT ITA 2019 2.011302e+12 5.687271e+11 28.32980 27.06667
Jamaica JM JAM 2019 1.583077e+10 8.243797e+09 23.48522 22.83273
Japan JP JPN 2019 5.117994e+12 9.085919e+11 29.26378 27.53516
Jordan JO JOR 2019 4.450301e+10 2.187324e+10 24.51882 23.80853
Kazakhstan KZ KAZ 2019 1.816672e+11 5.162914e+10 25.92544 24.66735
Kenya KE KEN 2019 1.003784e+11 2.040841e+10 25.33221 23.73921
Kiribati KI KIR 2019 1.751817e+08 1.808175e+08 18.98133 19.01300
Korea, Dem. People's Rep. KP PRK 2019 NA NA NA NA
Korea, Rep. KR KOR 2019 1.651423e+12 6.024602e+11 28.13266 27.12429
Kosovo XK XKX 2019 7.899741e+09 4.458677e+09 22.79010 22.21812
Kuwait KW KWT 2019 1.361918e+11 6.113581e+10 25.63733 24.83636
Kyrgyz Republic KG KGZ 2019 8.871020e+09 5.689777e+09 22.90606 22.46194
Lao PDR LA LAO 2019 1.874056e+10 NA 23.65396 NA
Late-demographic dividend V3 LTE 2019 2.304728e+13 5.997559e+12 30.76857 29.42237
Latin America & Caribbean (excluding high income) XJ LAC 2019 4.769077e+12 1.141874e+12 29.19317 27.76369
Latin America & Caribbean ZJ LCN 2019 5.622813e+12 1.397378e+12 29.35785 27.96562
Latin America & the Caribbean (IDA & IBRD countries) T2 TLA 2019 5.371332e+12 1.316431e+12 29.31210 27.90595
Latvia LV LVA 2019 3.434396e+10 2.076912e+10 24.25969 23.75673
Least developed countries: UN classification XL LDC 2019 1.142397e+12 3.270984e+11 27.76415 26.51353
Lebanon LB LBN 2019 5.160596e+10 2.182063e+10 24.66690 23.80612
Lesotho LS LSO 2019 2.436030e+09 2.230199e+09 21.61364 21.52536
Liberia LR LBR 2019 3.319597e+09 NA 21.92311 NA
Libya LY LBY 2019 6.925414e+10 2.449797e+10 24.96105 23.92186
Liechtenstein LI LIE 2019 6.436467e+09 NA 22.58525 NA
Lithuania LT LTU 2019 5.476062e+10 3.942493e+10 24.72624 24.39766
Low & middle income XO LMY 2019 3.211042e+13 7.495398e+12 31.10020 29.64531
Low income XM 2019 4.422870e+11 1.460904e+11 26.81522 25.70749
Lower middle income XN 2019 6.874527e+12 1.968809e+12 29.55884 28.30845
Luxembourg LU LUX 2019 6.982564e+10 1.211630e+11 24.96927 25.52040
Macao SAR, China MO MAC 2019 5.520496e+10 1.759365e+10 24.73432 23.59080
Madagascar MG MDG 2019 1.410466e+10 4.820540e+09 23.36977 22.29615
Malawi MW MWI 2019 1.102537e+10 NA 23.12346 NA
Malaysia MY MYS 2019 3.651777e+11 2.108931e+11 26.62365 26.07462
Maldives MV MDV 2019 5.609385e+09 4.399129e+09 22.44771 22.20467
Mali ML MLI 2019 1.728025e+10 6.558445e+09 23.57283 22.60402
Malta MT MLT 2019 1.588126e+10 2.368903e+10 23.48841 23.88828
Marshall Islands MH MHL 2019 2.320923e+08 2.670904e+08 19.26265 19.40310
Mauritania MR MRT 2019 8.066119e+09 4.404477e+09 22.81094 22.20589
Mauritius MU MUS 2019 1.443635e+10 7.538243e+09 23.39301 22.74326
Mexico MX MEX 2019 1.269010e+12 4.958790e+11 27.86926 26.92960
Micronesia, Fed. Sts. FM FSM 2019 4.120000e+08 3.027000e+08 19.83653 19.52825
Middle East & North Africa (excluding high income) XQ MNA 2019 1.408625e+12 4.544277e+11 27.97363 26.84230
Middle East & North Africa (IDA & IBRD countries) T3 TMN 2019 1.391491e+12 4.452660e+11 27.96140 26.82194
Middle East & North Africa ZQ MEA 2019 3.522808e+12 1.287199e+12 28.89028 27.88349
Middle income XP MIC 2019 3.166750e+13 7.349190e+12 31.08631 29.62561
Moldova MD MDA 2019 1.173577e+10 6.623806e+09 23.18591 22.61394
Monaco MC MCO 2019 7.383942e+09 NA 22.72257 NA
Mongolia MN MNG 2019 1.420636e+10 9.259603e+09 23.37696 22.94893
Montenegro ME MNE 2019 5.542054e+09 3.602221e+09 22.43563 22.00482
Morocco MA MAR 2019 1.289203e+11 5.402411e+10 25.58246 24.71270
Mozambique MZ MOZ 2019 1.539003e+10 1.227056e+10 23.45699 23.23047
Myanmar MM MMR 2019 6.869776e+10 2.081490e+10 24.95298 23.75893
Namibia NA NAM 2019 1.254193e+10 5.832030e+09 23.25234 22.48663
Nauru NR NRU 2019 1.251601e+08 1.194385e+08 18.64510 18.59831
Nepal NP NPL 2019 3.418618e+10 1.417687e+10 24.25509 23.37488
Netherlands NL NLD 2019 9.101943e+11 6.620113e+11 27.53692 27.21855
New Caledonia NC NCL 2019 9.475655e+09 NA 22.97199 NA
New Zealand NZ NZL 2019 2.130920e+11 5.767273e+10 26.08499 24.77805
Nicaragua NI NIC 2019 1.269903e+10 6.252720e+09 23.26479 22.55628
Niger NE NER 2019 1.291645e+10 3.396076e+09 23.28177 21.94589
Nigeria NG NGA 2019 4.745175e+11 9.396846e+10 26.88556 25.26623
North America XU NAC 2019 2.313212e+13 3.708858e+12 30.77224 28.94175
North Macedonia MK MKD 2019 1.260634e+10 9.602018e+09 23.25747 22.98524
Northern Mariana Islands MP MNP 2019 1.181000e+09 7.350000e+08 20.88963 20.41538
Norway NO NOR 2019 4.087428e+11 1.400144e+11 26.73635 25.66501
Not classified XY 2019 NA NA NA NA
OECD members OE OED 2019 5.387816e+13 1.505620e+13 31.61775 30.34281
Oman OM OMN 2019 8.806086e+10 3.256853e+10 25.20129 24.20661
Other small states S4 OSS 2019 4.341190e+11 2.293805e+11 26.79658 26.15865
Pacific island small states S2 PSS 2019 1.073984e+10 6.352216e+09 23.09723 22.57207
Pakistan PK PAK 2019 3.209095e+11 6.262456e+10 26.49442 24.86042
Palau PW PLW 2019 2.789000e+08 NA 19.44636 NA
Panama PA PAN 2019 6.972179e+10 NA 24.96778 NA
Papua New Guinea PG PNG 2019 2.475107e+10 NA 23.93213 NA
Paraguay PY PRY 2019 3.792534e+10 1.332502e+10 24.35889 23.31291
Peru PE PER 2019 2.283259e+11 5.229671e+10 26.15404 24.68020
Philippines PH PHL 2019 3.768234e+11 1.524587e+11 26.65504 25.75016
Poland PL POL 2019 5.960585e+11 2.950095e+11 27.11360 26.41027
Portugal PT PRT 2019 2.399869e+11 1.033295e+11 26.20385 25.36119
Post-demographic dividend V4 PST 2019 5.088006e+13 1.455643e+13 31.56049 30.30905
Pre-demographic dividend V1 PRE 2019 1.421161e+12 3.744305e+11 27.98250 26.64867
Puerto Rico PR PRI 2019 1.051264e+11 4.940160e+10 25.37843 24.62325
Qatar QA QAT 2019 1.763713e+11 6.676978e+10 25.89586 24.92452
Romania RO ROU 2019 2.510178e+11 1.112081e+11 26.24879 25.43467
Russian Federation RU RUS 2019 1.693115e+12 3.520887e+11 28.15759 26.58715
Rwanda RW RWA 2019 1.034668e+10 3.741294e+09 23.05993 22.04270
Samoa WS WSM 2019 9.129506e+08 4.409346e+08 20.63219 19.90441
San Marino SM SMR 2019 1.616189e+09 2.315474e+09 21.20334 21.56288
Sao Tome and Principe ST STP 2019 4.274250e+08 NA 19.87329 NA
Saudi Arabia SA SAU 2019 8.385647e+11 2.189408e+11 27.45496 26.11207
Senegal SN SEN 2019 2.340400e+10 9.186798e+09 23.87617 22.94103
Serbia RS SRB 2019 5.151424e+10 3.139467e+10 24.66512 24.16990
Seychelles SC SYC 2019 1.645091e+09 1.701459e+09 21.22106 21.25475
Sierra Leone SL SLE 2019 4.076579e+09 1.546805e+09 22.12852 21.15946
Singapore SG SGP 2019 3.768375e+11 5.505937e+11 26.65508 27.03426
Sint Maarten (Dutch part) SX SXM 2019 1.459777e+09 NA 21.10155 NA
Slovak Republic SK SVK 2019 1.057101e+11 9.681579e+10 25.38397 25.29608
Slovenia SI SVN 2019 5.433159e+10 4.080292e+10 24.71837 24.43202
Small states S1 SST 2019 5.221416e+11 2.798815e+11 26.98120 26.35763
Solomon Islands SB SLB 2019 1.619155e+09 7.528992e+08 21.20517 20.43944
Somalia SO SOM 2019 6.485000e+09 5.423000e+09 22.59276 22.41391
South Africa ZA ZAF 2019 3.885312e+11 1.039604e+11 26.68564 25.36728
South Asia (IDA & IBRD) T5 TSA 2019 3.658005e+12 7.859777e+11 28.92794 27.39019
South Asia 8S SAS 2019 3.658005e+12 7.859777e+11 28.92794 27.39019
South Sudan SS SSD 2019 NA NA NA NA
Spain ES ESP 2019 1.394320e+12 4.457221e+11 27.96343 26.82296
Sri Lanka LK LKA 2019 8.901498e+10 2.456991e+10 25.21207 23.92479
St. Kitts and Nevis KN KNA 2019 1.107844e+09 NA 20.82568 NA
St. Lucia LC LCA 2019 2.094185e+09 NA 21.46243 NA
St. Martin (French part) MF MAF 2019 NA NA NA NA
St. Vincent and the Grenadines VC VCT 2019 9.107657e+08 NA 20.62980 NA
Sub-Saharan Africa (excluding high income) ZF SSA 2019 1.821727e+12 4.805388e+11 28.23081 26.89817
Sub-Saharan Africa (IDA & IBRD countries) T6 TSS 2019 1.823372e+12 4.822462e+11 28.23171 26.90172
Sub-Saharan Africa ZG SSF 2019 1.823372e+12 4.822462e+11 28.23171 26.90172
Sudan SD SDN 2019 3.233808e+10 5.713051e+09 24.19951 22.46602
Suriname SR SUR 2019 4.016041e+09 NA 22.11356 NA
Sweden SE SWE 2019 5.338795e+11 2.329029e+11 27.00344 26.17389
Switzerland CH CHE 2019 7.213691e+11 4.123506e+11 27.30442 26.74514
Syrian Arab Republic SY SYR 2019 2.260090e+10 6.551865e+09 23.84126 22.60302
Tajikistan TJ TJK 2019 8.300814e+09 3.408736e+09 22.83962 21.94961
Tanzania TZ TZA 2019 6.102677e+10 1.036347e+10 24.83458 23.06155
Thailand TH THA 2019 5.439767e+11 2.729165e+11 27.02217 26.33243
Timor-Leste TL TLS 2019 2.028552e+09 1.004126e+09 21.43059 20.72738
Togo TG TGO 2019 6.992656e+09 2.272989e+09 22.66813 21.54436
Tonga TO TON 2019 5.120536e+08 3.338263e+08 20.05394 19.62613
Trinidad and Tobago TT TTO 2019 2.384956e+10 NA 23.89503 NA
Tunisia TN TUN 2019 4.190564e+10 2.362736e+10 24.45869 23.88567
Turkiye TR TUR 2019 7.599348e+11 2.292079e+11 27.35650 26.15790
Turkmenistan TM TKM 2019 4.422029e+10 8.844000e+09 24.51245 22.90301
Turks and Caicos Islands TC TCA 2019 1.197415e+09 NA 20.90343 NA
Tuvalu TV TUV 2019 5.412320e+07 NA 17.80677 NA
Uganda UG UGA 2019 3.534816e+10 7.865670e+09 24.28851 22.78577
Ukraine UA UKR 2019 1.538830e+11 7.583286e+10 25.75946 25.05180
United Arab Emirates AE ARE 2019 4.179897e+11 2.955998e+11 26.75872 26.41227
United Kingdom GB GBR 2019 2.857058e+12 9.391877e+11 28.68081 27.56828
United States US USA 2019 2.138098e+13 3.117235e+12 30.69352 28.76797
Upper middle income XT 2019 2.479297e+13 5.380594e+12 30.84158 29.31382
Uruguay UY URY 2019 6.204859e+10 1.349365e+10 24.85118 23.32549
Uzbekistan UZ UZB 2019 6.028350e+10 2.665756e+10 24.82232 24.00634
Vanuatu VU VUT 2019 9.365263e+08 4.592509e+08 20.65769 19.94511
Venezuela, RB VE VEN 2019 NA NA NA NA
Vietnam VN VNM 2019 3.343653e+11 2.659763e+11 26.53550 26.30667
Virgin Islands (U.S.) VI VIR 2019 4.117000e+09 4.148000e+09 22.13839 22.14589
West Bank and Gaza PS PSE 2019 1.713350e+10 9.161700e+09 23.56430 22.93830
World 1W WLD 2019 8.772810e+13 2.436973e+13 32.10526 30.82436
Yemen, Rep. YE YEM 2019 NA NA NA NA
Zambia ZM ZMB 2019 2.330867e+10 7.961078e+09 23.87209 22.79783
Zimbabwe ZW ZWE 2019 2.183223e+10 5.572484e+09 23.80665 22.44111

Menggambar grafik

library(ggrepel)
weleh<-subset(dat,iso2c%in%c("ID","KR","CN","US","GB","EU","SG",
                             "TL","BN","KH","MY","TH","JP"))
www<-dat %>% ggplot(aes(x=Limport,y=LPDB)) + geom_point() + geom_smooth(method="lm")
www+geom_label_repel(data=weleh,box.padding   = 0.35, point.padding = 0.5, segment.color = 'grey50',label=weleh$country,min.segment.length = 0,nudge_y = -4) + theme_classic()

Figure 1: Hubungan impor dan PDB, 2019

Melakukan regresi

model<-lm(data=dat,formula=LPDB~Limport)
summary(model)

Call:
lm(formula = LPDB ~ Limport, data = dat)

Residuals:
     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max 
-1.67360 -0.27239  0.04236  0.30476  1.40071 

Coefficients:
            Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
(Intercept) -0.66324    0.29271  -2.266   0.0244 *  
Limport      1.06515    0.01187  89.729   <2e-16 ***
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

Residual standard error: 0.4788 on 228 degrees of freedom
  (36 observations deleted due to missingness)
Multiple R-squared:  0.9725,    Adjusted R-squared:  0.9723 
F-statistic:  8051 on 1 and 228 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16

R dan Regresi

  • Kita perkuat landasan teori dulu
    • Kita belajar karakteristik dan asumsi OLS
  • Kita juga akan melakukan teknik-teknik regresi yang lebih maju:
    • Regresi multivariat: \(Y_i=\beta_0+\sum_j^N \beta_j X_{i,j}+\mu_i\).
    • Regresi dengan variabel kategori / Dummy.
    • Regresi serial waktu.
  • Anda akan menulis penelitian dengan regresi yang lebih kompleks.

Minggu depan

  • Karakteristik dan asumsi OLS.
  • Regresi multivariat.
  • Regresi Biner / kategori.