Publications

Restrictive regulations on foreign trade may hurt economy

Me and my colleague Deasy Pane of Bappenas look at how the follow-up regulation from Job Creation Law may restrict trade a great deal. In turn, this has the potential to distort the economy further with more red tape instead of less (paywalled)

Kebijakan untuk meningkatkan partisipasi perusahaan-perusahaan Indonesia dalam rantai pasok global

Walau mendapatkan berbagai macam perlawanan dari publik, Undang-undang (UU) Nomor 11 Tahun 2020, atau lebih dikenal dengan sebutan UU Cipta Kerja telah resmi tercatat dalam lembar negara. Untuk itu pemerintah harus berupaya agar bisa memaksimalkan UU ini untuk lebih menyejahterakan para pekerja. Salah satu cara untuk meningkatkan penghasilan para pekerja adalah dengan meningkatkan partisipasi Indonesia dalam rantai pasok global, dimana sebuah perusahaan bisa menghubungkan sebuah produk dari penghasil, pengolah, distributor, hingga konsumen akhir dalam skala global.

The heterogenous impact of tariff and NTM on total factor productivity of Indonesian firms

Indonesian government has been working hard in engaging with the world market as average tariff keeps on decreasing. However, it seems to follow the global trend, that is, relying on Non-Tariff Measures (NTM) to regulate its market instead to protect its industries. This paper inspects whether these measures are actually hurt firms by limiting their access to better quality and cheaper foreign inputs. This paper builds from Amiti and Konings (2007), inspecting the impact of trade policy shocks to firm’s Total Factor Productivity (TFP). This study finds that tariff and NTMs are hurting firms TFP significantly and causing less employment. The impact is less severe for bigger firms, confirming heterogenous effect of trade policy. The result suggests unintended consequences of protectionism in Indonesian market. Moreover, as the country is looking to boost foreign investment, more protectionism may be regulated to keep markup in the domestic market high as an incentive for foreign investors.

COVID-19 punishes Indonesian commodity exporters

COVID-19 may punishes commodity exporter a bit more severe than other economies. As a country dependent on commodity for its employment and tax revenue, Indonesia needs to be prepared.

Indonesia's PPE export ban backfires

During the pandemic, most countries in the world reacted with export ban to secure availability of important product such Personal Protective Equipment (PPE). We analyze why meddling with trade to solve scarcity problem may lead to even more scarcity problem, and suggest better ways to do it. See the full publication in the East Asia Forum.

COVID-19 dan Anjloknya Indeks PMI Indonesia

Policy brief on the Indonesian manufacturing industry, focused on the decrease in Indonesia’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), submitted to the Indonesian minister of industry, Agus Kartasasmita, on 5 May 2020.